by MDefl
If you happened upon this site, then I welcome you! This will serve as the inaugural post for this blog. If my handle, MDefl, looks familiar, then you have probably read my rantings at Right Pundits or in the comment threads at The Hedgehog Report. The purpose of this blog will be simple and straightforward. I will be commenting on anything and everything (that appeals to me) regarding Pennsylvania. A large part of this blog will be focused on politics but I will not hesitate to deviate and discuss any other issue of the day.
As I type this, it has been approximately 45 hours since it became apparent that Barack Obama won the election to be President of The United States. As a Republican, I was less than thrilled. However, I do understand why this is such an important event in our history given the racial strife that has existed for centuries in our country. If Martin Luther King were alive today, I hope he would be warmed by the fact that enough Americans judged Barack Obama by the content of his character for him to be elected to the most powerful position on the face of the earth. The fact that his brand of politics and cult of personality are exactly what this country does not need will be discussed on another day.
John McCain’s campaign spent an incredible amount of time and money in Pennsylvania. For some reason, they seemed to believe that he had a chance to win. How they came to that decision is unclear. In the end, despite the monumental effort from John McCain’s campaign, Barack Obama bested John McCain by 11%, which represented an increase of 7.5% from John Kerry’s performance in 2004. This is quite a feat when you consider how hated Bush was in the city of Philadelphia and the surrounding suburbs in 2004. Let’s take a look at exactly what happened.
First, this was going to be a hard year for any Republican to win in a general election. The country has had 8 years of a Republican in the White House whose favorability ratings are on a par with Richard Nixon and Harry Truman’s last days in office. In both cases, members of the opposing party won election to the White House. Second, the economy turned sour earlier in the year. A sluggish economy certainly would not have favored John McCain but when the credit crisis blew up in September, his bid for the Presidency was doomed. Pennsylvania, already trending blue for the last 4 general election cycles, certainly would not be immune from those issues. A loss in PA would be expected but it is surprising that John McCain lost by a % margin that was 3 times that of George W. Bush in 2004.
One might conclude that it was all about the city of Philadelphia. Barack Obama won 83% of the vote in the city of brotherly love. However, this only represented a 3% increase over 2004. The real story is the dramatic shift in the suburbs of Philadelphia, not just the first inner ring but the second ring as well. In fairness to John McCain, the first ring of suburbs - Delaware, Bucks and Montgomery counties had already turned blue in previous elections. Bush is a hated figure in the suburbs and I am talking about both Democrats and Republicans. What is surprising is that McCain actually did much worse in each county than Bush in 04 or 00. That is not surprising for Delaware county since Chester, the largest city in Delaware county is 98% African American. It is my understanding that the turnout was triple what it was for any other election – ever. Montgomery county is no shocker either since it is becoming the land of the limousine liberals and country club republicans who are easily manipulated by the main stream media. Bucks county is a surprise in that half of the county is rural. That should favor McCain, yet he lost the county by almost double digits.
The true stunner of this race however was the 2 second ring suburbs, Chester and Berks counties. Both have been red since the beginning of time. It never entered my mind that Barack Obama could win either county. He won both by almost double digits. Simply put, the GOP has lost the state of Pennsylvania because of their inability to communicate a message that resonates with these voters. While this is just my opinion, the social issues seemed to have turned many moderate Republicans into Democrats. I guess we can call some of them Obama Republicans. If the GOP has any hope of recapturing Pennsylvania, then they will have to develop a strategy that speaks to their fiscal concerns and de-emphasize the social aspects of the GOP plank. Many disagree vehemently with me on this issue. Some believe that Pennsylvania can be turned red again with a candidate that knows how to effectively communicate the conservative vision.
I will agree that the occupant of the White House for the last 8 years will never remind anyone of Ronald Reagan and John McCain, a good man to be certain, was less than inspiring when compared to a wonder-kind like Barack Obama. Others will claim that McCain would have won Pennsylvania were it not for the credit crisis. This is a belief that is contradicted by every single poll of Pennsylvania taken over the last 6 months.
Still, it is always darkest before the dawn. McCain versus Obama may prove to be the darkest night for the GOP in Pennsylvania. We will have a good indication in 2010 during the mid-term elections. In the days and months ahead, these issues will be examined in depth. Please do not hesitate to comment whether you agree on disagree.
MDefl